Picture this scenario: southern Lebanon comes under the control of a powerful and popular militia committed to the destruction of Israel. The area is flooded with well-trained well-financed guerrillas, and border tensions increase. Finally, a few members of the terrorist organization crosses into Israel to provoke a response. Israel responds by invading Lebanon and seizing the area below the Litani river, to create a buffer zone. Large numbers of Lebanese deaths follow.
The year? 1978
The militia? The PLO.
The outcome? No decline in the power of the PLO in the south, many more years of disastrous civil war in Lebanon, and a very angry local population.
Some lessons are never learned...